Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 26, 12:30 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Oscar Winner: Best Picture
KalshiOscar nominees: Best Picture
KalshiOscar Winner: Best Actor
KalshiWill Exit 8 be nominated for an Oscar in any category?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
Manifold MarketsWhich film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tom Holland get an Oscar by end of 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tom Holland get an Oscar by end of 2027 resolve?
- Will Tom Holland get an Oscar by end of 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.