What are the current odds for Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.8% as of November 4, 2026.

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 86.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale

Jan 1, 26, 2:38 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

TLDR: If another similar blackout (such as the one from April 2025), happens before the end of 2026, it resolves YES.

Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Spain experiences a nationwide blackout affecting mainland peninsular Spain (excluding islands), that affects a significant portion of the country's electricity grid.
Resolution will be based on official statements from Red Eléctrica (Spain's grid operator) or Spanish government sources confirming a nationwide blackout event.
The market resolves NO if no such event occurs by the end date.
On April 28, 2025, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas.