Current community forecast
No 91.3%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 26, 11:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a unicorn with no human employees by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWill I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsManifold Bingo 2026
Manifold MarketsSpaceX pivots away from xAI
Manifold MarketsRules
E.g. a startup with an OpenClaw CEO
- Definition of "zero human employee startup" for the purposes of this market:
- Receives angel/VC investment of at least $10K USD or equivalent in another (crypto)currency, or bootstraps itself to $10K+ USD by doing immediately-profitable work
- Engages in economically-useful work, validated by either:
- Appreciation from humans (who are not sockpuppets)
- Profiting from selling products and/or services to other AIs
