Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 6, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
Yes 75%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 days ago
StaleMay 29, 26, 6:56 PMDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes75%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall97% match · auto | Medium | 80% | — | $2.8K | $8.9K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 75% | — | — | — | 37 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
5mo
80%
21%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$157.7K
24h Vol$2.8K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.