Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 24, 12:48 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 12:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves yes if on 1 January 2050 the Linux kernel project continues to exist, with development activity ongoing.
- A fork of the main kernel project doesn't count unless there is some exceptional circumstance where there is truly overwhelming community consensus that the fork is the "real" project (think a situation where a supermajority of prominent kernel developers and most of the key distros switch over instantly due to a legal dispute or a few individuals being disruptive, not a situation where someone forks Linux because it's dead and they want it as a retrocomputing project).