Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 25, 1:41 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiWhat will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?
Manifold MarketsWill Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiWill Maria Machado get nothing in exchange for her Nobel prize? (in 2026)
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.2%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.6%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.7%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.4M
- 24h Vol
- $439.3K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+2.0pt17%
- AMAN11%
- CCAR10%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $136.8K
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI-3.0pt62.5%
- Resident Evil Requiem+1.0pt11.6%
- Control Resonant+1.0pt8%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane+0.7pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.5pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-8.0pt60%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt61%
- twenty one pilots+7.0pt16.1%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $32.8K
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Shakira & Burna Boy39.8%
- Bad Bunny-2.0pt30.6%
- Anitta with Shakira25%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $22.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Art Direction
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman? resolve?
- Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.