Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 5:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mircea Cărtărescu win a Nobel Prize in Literature (2025-2030)?
Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketCritics Choice Awards: Best Cinematography
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.