Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 24, 3:57 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
must play a role that is not herself (not a concert movie or other similar media)
- must be a live action role, not animated, although animation enhanced performances will count
- https://www.imdb.com/name/nm2357847/