What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released?
EntertainmentOne-Off
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2031-2035 34.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 24, 6:31 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
In which calendar year will a film adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (HPMOR) first become publicly available, meeting all of the criteria below?
- Resolution Criteria
- Length: The final product must be at least 60 minutes in total runtime.
- Based on HPMOR: It should be a recognizable adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.
- Minimal or moderate changes from the text are acceptable (as is typical when adapting from a written work to film).
- Public Release: The complete film must be publicly accessible in some form—e.g. YouTube, a streaming platform, direct download, or even a limited theatrical release.
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- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released??
- Manifold Markets prices 2031-2035 at 34% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released? resolve?
- What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In which calendar year will a film adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (HPMOR) first become publicly available, meeting all of the criteria below?