What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released?
EntertainmentOne-Off
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2031-2035 34.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
2031-2035 34.2%Forecasters
10
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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0.0 pts
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 26, 24, 6:31 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiClayface · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
In which calendar year will a film adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (HPMOR) first become publicly available, meeting all of the criteria below?
- Resolution Criteria
- Length: The final product must be at least 60 minutes in total runtime.
- Based on HPMOR: It should be a recognizable adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.
- Minimal or moderate changes from the text are acceptable (as is typical when adapting from a written work to film).
- Public Release: The complete film must be publicly accessible in some form—e.g. YouTube, a streaming platform, direct download, or even a limited theatrical release.