Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 83.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 22, 25, 4:04 AM UTCJan 1, 36, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar start the 2027 Milan - San Remo race?
Manifold MarketsBallon d'Or Winner 2026
Polymarket2027 Pro Football Champion
KalshiRules
The record for number of Tour de France victories is currently a four-way tie at five victories, between Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain.
- (Lance Armstrong won the Tour seven times, but all of his victories were later stripped by the UCI after his doping conviction.)
- Resolves YES if Tadej Pogacar wins the general classification (yellow jersey) of the Tour de France six times.
- All of his previous victories must be considered valid by the UCI by the time of his sixth victory.
- Resolves NO if Pogacar retires without having won the Tour de France general classification six times.
- As of the conclusion of the 2026 Tour de France, Pogacar has won five times (2020, 2021, 2024, 2025, 2026).
