What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Sports2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2028 45.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 24, 4:33 PM UTCAug 1, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jonas Vingegaard start the 2027 Tour de France?
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Manifold MarketsShelton vs Alcaraz
KalshiUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
PolymarketRules
Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard are two of the most dominant GC riders in recent cycling history.
- They have placed first and second in the last four (2021-24) consecutive Tours de France.
- Resolves YES to the first year in which the Tour de France is held and a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the general classification.
- If no other rider wins the Tour by 2029, then the market will resolve YES to the named outcome.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 46% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France? resolve?
- What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France? is scheduled to resolve on August 1, 2029.
- How is What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard are two of the most dominant GC riders in recent cycling history.