Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 23.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 17, 23, 10:04 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
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KalshiNbagame 26 OCT 30 Nykphi
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
