Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 24.2%-0.4ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 17, 23, 10:04 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketUS Open Men's Singles Winner
Kalshi2027 Pro Football Champion
KalshiRules
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.5M
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.6M
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets prices 2029 at 24% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? resolve?
- What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2034.
- How is What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.