Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2029 23.4%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingNov 17, 23, 10:04 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win all 5 monuments during his career?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiVidantaWorld Mexico Open Winner
KalshiRules
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
