Will Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceed 25 USD/kg on December 31, 2026?
CommoditiesDailyChina2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.4%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 25 USD/kg on December 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to December 31, 2026.
- YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 25 USD/kg on December 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 25 USD/kg on December 31, 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
- Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
