What are the current odds for Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 81.5% as of October 28, 2026.

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 23 minutes ago

Aug 1, 26, 2:44 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.

Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.