Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 51 minutes ago
LaggingMay 8, 25, 8:24 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before 2030?
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KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if anyone gifts Pope Leo XIV Deltarune, in any way comparable to how MatPat gifted Pope Francis Undertale, by January 1st 2030.
- This could be a gift code, a box of the game, or anything else which could reasonably be called gifting the pope Deltarune.
- For this to count, this must either be a gift which the Pope acknowledges in some form, or is otherwise in the audience for.
- That is to say, someone online can't just say they bought the Holy Father a copy of Deltarune that he's free to claim, or that they emailed it to him, or anything like that.
- This market will resolve YES very leniently, as long as it's in the spirit of the market.