Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 26, 11:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which team will win the 2026 MLS Cup (all 30 teams in market) Polymarket and Kalshi in description
Manifold MarketsWill sports markets be banned from Polymarket or Kalshi by EOY at direction of the government?
Manifold MarketsDoes Barron have a Polymarket or Kalshi account?
Manifold MarketsCEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold to all mention Hayek in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
Markets like "Resolves YES if this market closes at above 50%" or "Resolves NO if the market drops below 10%" or something would qualify.
- The current derivative market on the Jesus Christ market (https://polymarket.com/event/jesus-christ-return-before-2027-odds-5-monday-night-12-1-am) would NOT qualify, but only ever so slightly.
- I will not bet on this market, so I can judge what constitutes whalebait objectively.
