Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.8%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 26, 11:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Markets like "Resolves YES if this market closes at above 50%" or "Resolves NO if the market drops below 10%" or something would qualify.
- The current derivative market on the Jesus Christ market (https://polymarket.com/event/jesus-christ-return-before-2027-odds-5-monday-night-12-1-am) would NOT qualify, but only ever so slightly.
- I will not bet on this market, so I can judge what constitutes whalebait objectively.
Open markets
Exchange
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Ftiaamic
- AMIC+38.0pt78.4%
- FTIA-37.0pt21.6%
- Total Vol
- $5.4M
- 24h Vol
- $5.4M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $658.7K
- 24h Vol
- $637.4K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Atpmatch MUSO 26 Bshecalc
- CALC76.7%
- BSHE+1.0pt23.3%
- Total Vol
- $534.5K
- 24h Vol
- $534.5K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro Quarter Finals match
- Jessica Pegula76.8%
- Emma Navarro23.1%
- Total Vol
- $143.6K
- 24h Vol
- $499.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Mandcgau
- Wtamatch WUSO 26 Qzheeryb
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- What chain will LAPTOP launch on?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Polymarket or Kalshi make a whalebait market in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Polymarket or Kalshi make a whalebait market in 2026? resolve?
- Will Polymarket or Kalshi make a whalebait market in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Polymarket or Kalshi make a whalebait market in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Markets like "Resolves YES if this market closes at above 50%" or "Resolves NO if the market drops below 10%" or something would qualify.