Will OECD total electricity production by natural gas per month be lower than 200TWh in 2026 at least once?
CommoditiesOne-Off9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 26, 4:25 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, for at least one calendar month in 2026 (January through December), the total net electricity production from natural gas for the "OECD Total" grouping is strictly lower than 200 TWh (equivalent to 200,000 GWh).
- It resolves to NO if every month in 2026 records natural gas electricity generation at or above this threshold.
- Source of Truth: The market will resolve based on the official dataset published in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Monthly Electricity Statistics (MES).
- Data Specification: Within the MES database or data browser, the target metric is under the regional grouping "OECD Total" for the fuel source "Natural gas" (net electricity production).
- Timing and Revisions: The market will resolve once the IEA publishes the monthly data for all months of 2026 (expected by spring 2027).