Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 57.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 24, 5:12 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before Spider-Man: Beyond the spider-verse?
Manifold MarketsWill Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse get a 95% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes?
Manifold MarketsWill Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be delayed?
PolymarketWill Noam Chomsky live longer than Bertrand Russell? (Russell died at 98)
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Noam is still alive at the time this movie releases in the USA, either on streaming or in theaters, whichever comes first.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Noam Chomsky live to see Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Noam Chomsky live to see Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse? resolve?
- Will Noam Chomsky live to see Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Noam Chomsky live to see Spider-Man Beyond the Spider-Verse? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Noam is still alive at the time this movie releases in the USA, either on streaming or in theaters, whichever comes first.