Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
One-OffSociety & CultureManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.4%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 23, 7:14 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 0.1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the US population be >500M by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the US population exceed 500 million by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of the US population own a flying car by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRules
I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"
