Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
One-OffSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.4%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 23, 7:14 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050? resolve?
- Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"