Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
One-OffETFExchangeBusiness & Corporate2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 10:09 PM UTCNov 8, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItWho will be caught insider trading in prediction markets?
Manifold MarketsWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRules
On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
- “Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.
- Will this prediction come true?
- Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg.
- Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet.
- Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? resolve?
- Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2026.
- How is Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
