Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 7, 25, 3:31 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Abrego Garcia is deported to El Salvador before January 1, 2029.
- Verification will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or reputable news outlets reporting on his deportation.
- If no such deportation occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran national, entered the United States around 2011, fleeing gang violence in El Salvador.
- In 2019, an immigration judge granted him protection from deportation to El Salvador due to the threats he faced from local gangs.