Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of October 19, 2026.

When does Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030? resolve?

Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The prediction market will resolve as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, El Salvador's annual murder rate is below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants, based on reliable international sources such as the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the World Bank, or other internationally recognized organizations that compile and report on global homicide statistics.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

• PCN+0.5pt29%
• ARENA-10.0pt25%
• Vamos18%

+8 more outcomes

Total Vol

$12.8K

24h Vol

$357.5

POLYMARKET

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

• PCN-14.5pt38%
• PDC+6.0pt21%
• Vamos-3.0pt10%

+8 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

El Salvador Legislative Election Winner

• Nuevas Ideas (NI)+0.1pt94.1%
• FMLN1%
• FPS1%

+8 more outcomes

Total Vol

POLYMARKET

Which party will gain most seats in El Salvador Legislative Election?

• Nuevas Ideas (NI)+0.5pt78%
• ARENA4%
• PCN4%

+8 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by which date?

• December 31, 2026+1.0pt17%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$85.2K

24h Vol

—

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

• No73%
• Yes27%

Total Vol

$400K

24h Vol

—

• Will Bitcoin "Volcano Bonds" from El Salvador be issued by 2030?
• Will a political group in El Salvador significant in the next 20 years be founded by inmates of the megaprison?
• Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be deported to El Salvador before 2029?
• Will a sitting US president visit El Salvador through 2029?
• Next country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender:
• Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?
• Which of the following will be true by 2030? (Nayib Bukele Questions)
• El Salvador Presidential Election Winner
• Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?