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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bitcoin
  3. Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?

Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?

0.2% (24h)BitcoinEl SalvadorOne-OffCorporate Treasury6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026 21%-6.0%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$429

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 0.1%

7d Change

-0.3%

Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Aug 27, 25, 11:55 PMJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM
Outcome24hChance
September 30
September 30
0%
December 31
December 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 31, 202621%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador).
  • Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered.
  • If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used.
  • Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador).
  • Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered.
  • If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used.
  • Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.