Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?
55.5 pts (24h)BitcoinEl SalvadorOne-OffCryptoCorporate Treasury5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31, 2026 25%-55.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$39.3
Liquidity
$145.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 38.0%
Spread
26.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
+4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 27, 25, 11:55 PMJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 31, 202625%
Volume trend
$39Jul 1014d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador).
- Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered.
- If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used.
- Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.