Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)BitcoinEl SalvadorOne-OffCryptoCorporate Treasury3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 2026 44%+0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.8
Liquidity
$92
Low liquiditySpread
66.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
30
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 27, 25, 11:55 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador).
- Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered.
- If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used.
- Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.