Current community forecast
No 69.8%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 9:32 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill James Cameron ever orbit or walk on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos spend a week in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRules
See: @/strutheo/will-james-cameron-ever-walk-on-or
- See: @/strutheo/will-mark-zuckerberg-ever-orbit-or
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- See: @/strutheo/will-palmer-lucky-ever-orbit-or-wal
- See: @/strutheo/will-sergey-brin-ever-orbit-or-walk
- See: @/strutheo/will-kanye-west-ever-orbit-or-walk
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon? resolve?
- Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.
- How is Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See: @/strutheo/will-james-cameron-ever-walk-on-or