Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 23, 9:47 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiRules
I will resolve this market YES within 2 weeks of its closing.
- If I forget about this market, but I can resolve it after these 2 weeks, then I will resolve it NO.
- I ask the admins to resolve this market NO, if I am unable to resolve this market within these two weeks.
- I will not participate in betting on this market.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
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- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will resolve this market YES within 2 weeks of its closing.