Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 26, 2:27 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Driverless: no safety driver
- Hail a ride: must be point to point of my choosing within the service area, and not a demo route
- I will try a second time around the end of the year if the first ride has a safety driver.
- I don’t expect to take any additional Zoox rides by my own volition, but those would also count if they meet the criteria.
- I have an account and am on the waitlist.
- I have access to Las Vegas rides (as is true for all accounts, I think)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be able to hail a driverless Zoox ride in San Francisco by the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I be able to hail a driverless Zoox ride in San Francisco by the end of 2026 resolve?
- Will I be able to hail a driverless Zoox ride in San Francisco by the end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will I be able to hail a driverless Zoox ride in San Francisco by the end of 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Driverless: no safety driver