Will "How to Build a Third Place on Focusmate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "How to Build a Third Place on Focusmate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of October 31, 2026.

When does Will "How to Build a Third Place on Focusmate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "How to Build a Third Place on Focusmate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "How to Build a Third Place on Focusmate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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KALSHI

New River Gorge recreation visits in 2026

• Above 1.7 million97.5%
• Above 1.8 million96.5%
• Above 1.9 million92.5%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$136.4K

24h Vol

$19.6K

KALSHI

Duolingo language rankings · #2 in 2026?

• Spanish-6.0pt81%
• Japanese+3.0pt3.5%
• German+1.0pt

KALSHI

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

• Above 4.1 million99.5%
• Above 4.2 million99.5%
• Above 4.3 million-1.0pt98.5%

KALSHI

TSA avg check-ins from Oct 26 to Nov 1, 2026?

• Above 1.8 million99.5%
• Above 1.85 million99.5%
• Above 1.95 million95.5%

KALSHI

TSA passenger screenings on Oct 31, 2026

• At least 1,800,000 passengers43%
• At least 1,900,000 passengers6.5%
• At least 2,100,000 passengers12%

POLYMARKET

Is Earth flat?

• No+0.1pt99%
• Yes-0.1pt1%

Total Vol

$68.8K

24h Vol

$2K

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