Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 51.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 2:56 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if hafnium unwrought metal price exceeds 2000 USD/kg on December 31, 2029.
- What is being measured: Hafnium unwrought metal spot price (USD/kg) on or nearest to December 31, 2029, based on USGS MCS annual average (for yearly markets) or Asian Metal / Argus Metals International spot quotes (for quarterly markets).
- YES if: Hafnium spot price >= 2000 USD/kg on December 31, 2029 NO if: Hafnium spot price < 2000 USD/kg on December 31, 2029
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Hafnium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February annually; covers prior calendar year average price
- Asian Metal — hafnium unwrought China domestic price (asianmetal.com)
