Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleNov 26, 24, 9:35 PM UTCDec 3, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the main antagonist in the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)?
Manifold MarketsWill Hajrudin awaken Conqueror’s Haki during the Elbaph Arc?
Manifold MarketsPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRules
Inspired by the video by Morj: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Pa0AQf1vAuA.
- Franky needs to be heavily involved in creating a ship or a weapon and this needs to based on the Pluton blueprints that he previously owned or in some other way heavily related to Pluton.
- Arcs are specified according to the wiki.
- Elbaph started on 1126 and will end when the wiki claims.
- Will resolve to No after the arc if the conditions have not yet been meet.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece) resolve?
- Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece) is scheduled to resolve on December 3, 2027.
- How is Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by the video by Morj: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Pa0AQf1vAuA.