Current community forecast
No 80.9%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 24, 3:16 AM UTCJan 2, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Fabiano Caruana ever become World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsWill Fabiano Caruana become world chess champion by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Hikaru Nakamura ever become World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
Kalshi2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
PolymarketFIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in October 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the chess prodigy Faustino Oro becomes world chess champion by 2040, and NO otherwise.
- From Wikipedia:
- Faustino Oro (born October 14, 2013) is an Argentine chess player.
- In 2024, he defeated Magnus Carlsen in a bullet chess game.
- In 2023, when he was nine, he received a rating of 2300 (classical), becoming the youngest chess player to have done so.
- He has been dubbed the "Messi of chess".
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040? resolve?
- Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2041.
- How is Will Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the chess prodigy Faustino Oro becomes world chess champion by 2040, and NO otherwise.