Current community forecast
No 92.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 20, 24, 2:53 AM UTCDec 10, 37, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Hikaru Nakamura renew a contract with Kick once it expires?
Manifold MarketsWill Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Fabiano Caruana ever become World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiFIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026
KalshiRules
Hikaru Nakamura is one of the top chess players in the world right now.
- Will he ever become world champion?
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikaru_Nakamura
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship
- This market will resolve YES when/if Hikaru Nakamura becomes world chess champion.
- This market will resolve NO when/if I determine that Hikaru Nakamura has become irrelevant to the world chess championship.