Current community forecast
No 82.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 26, 24, 5:36 AM UTCJul 31, 42, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Fabiano Caruana become world chess champion by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Faustino Oro become world chess champion by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Hikaru Nakamura ever become World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsWill Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa ever become World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiFIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026
KalshiRules
Fabiano Caruana is one of the top chess players in the world right now.
- Will he ever become world champion?
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship
- This market will resolve YES when/if Fabiano Caruana becomes world chess champion.
- This market will resolve NO when/if I determine that Fabiano Caruana has become irrelevant to the world chess championship.
