Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.6%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 6, 26, 9:34 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:28 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Euphoria: New season announcement date
KalshiWill The Rehearsal get renewed for a 3rd season?
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Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiHighest grossing movie in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Creator Sam Levinson has stated he has “no plans” for a Season 4, saying he writes “every season like it’s the last season” and wants to “deliver a slam dunk” with Season 3.
- Zendaya has also hinted strongly that the series is coming to an end with Season 3.
- However, the case for renewal isn’t closed.
- HBO’s advertising for the Season 3 finale labels it a “season finale” rather than a “series finale.” HBO CEO Casey Bloys has said he and Levinson will have a conversation about “what he’s thinking” after Season 3 wraps.
- This market resolves YES if HBO officially announces a Season 4 renewal.
- It resolves NO if no renewal is announced by that date, or Levinson officially confirms Season 3 is the series finale.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Euphoria be renewed for Season 4??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Euphoria be renewed for Season 4? resolve?
- Will Euphoria be renewed for Season 4? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Euphoria be renewed for Season 4? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Creator Sam Levinson has stated he has “no plans” for a Season 4, saying he writes “every season like it’s the last season” and wants to “deliver a slam dunk” with Season 3.