Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026?
One-OffCommoditiesTrade PolicyChinaGeopolitics6dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 17, 26, 9:01 AM UTCSep 15, 26, 9:01 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if the average global prices of neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium magnets increase by more than 20% from their baseline prices as of December 1, 2025, by September 15, 2026.
- The baseline and subsequent prices will be verified using data from authoritative sources such as the US Geological Survey (USGS) and industry reports from Roskill and Adamas Intelligence.
- The new Chinese export restrictions, effective December 1, 2025, are expected to significantly impact global supply chains, potentially leading to price increases due to limited availability and increased geopolitical tensions.
- This threshold is critical as it reflects the anticipated market response to these restrictions, which could disrupt supply and elevate prices significantly.
- Source: Article
Open markets
Commodities
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026? resolve?
- Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 15, 2026.
- How is Will Chinese export restrictions cause global Nd, Dy, Sm magnet prices to exceed a 20% rise by September 15, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the average global prices of neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium magnets increase by more than 20% from their baseline prices as of December 1, 2025, by September 15, 2026.