What are the current odds for Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 65.4% as of October 31, 2026.

Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 65.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 59 minutes ago

Lagging

Jun 5, 26, 12:15 AM UTCFeb 29, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

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Will China fly taikonauts in cislunar space before Chinese New Year 2028?

As long as they are withing the sphere of influence it counts.
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/isaacman-chinese-taikonauts-likely-to-fly-around-moon-in-2027/
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if China launches a crewed spacecraft carrying at least one human astronaut (taikonaut) that successfully enters cislunar space or the Moon's gravitational sphere of influence (including lunar flybys, circumlunar trajectories, lunar orbit, or landing) before Chinese New Year 2028
While China's officially declared objective is to land taikonauts on the lunar surface by 2030, observers and aerospace officials have suggested precursor missions are planned.