Current community forecast
Yes 63.2%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 23, 1:08 AM UTCJan 1, 39, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla
Manifold MarketsWill the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNumber of Honey Deuces sold at the US Open
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
- Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
- (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? resolve?
- Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2039.
- How is Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.