Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 57%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 22, 10:48 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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KalshiRules
Clarification - humanoid robots.
- See similar market on Tesla: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-tesla-sell-1b-of-humanoid-robo
- Nov 24, 2:54pm: Will any company sell >$1B of robots before 2030? → Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030?
- Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- The revenue threshold of >$1B is measured in 2023 dollars.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $636.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.2%
- Before March 202717.1%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.3%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030? resolve?
- Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will any company sell >$1B of humanoid robots before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Clarification - humanoid robots.