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LaggingJul 18, 25, 7:00 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Here's a human-made video of a Rube Goldberg machine:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss-P4qLLUyk
- [link preview]Eliezer Yudkowsky has predicted that the ability to generate a video like that (indistinguishable from reality even on close human inspection) from a prompt will require an AI that's within 1 year of AGI.
- Since this is another leading indicator, I thought it would be good to have a Manifold market for it.
- Yudkowsky's thinking is that it takes a high-fidelity physics model to make all the balls and dominoes and things interact realistically.
- If you understand the physical world at that level, AGI isn't far behind.
