Will a Tesla Roadster hover (all 4 wheels off the ground under its own thrust) at a live demo by October 31, 2026?
StablecoinOne-OffTechSpace20dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96.6%
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25
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 1:46 AM UTCNov 5, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Tesla has promised a "flying" Roadster demo since 2025.
- Musk first said it would come by end of 2025, then April 1, 2026, then late April, then "maybe in a month or so," then August, then October 1, 2026.
- On September 28, 2026, Tesla posted on X: "given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we've made the difficult decision to reschedule.
- New date is October 15." The event is at SpaceX's McGregor test site near Waco, TX.
- The plan is a SpaceX developed cold gas thruster package that makes the car hover.
- Musk said Tesla needs "an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI." Resolves YES if, between market creation and 11:59 PM US Central Time on October 31, 2026, Tesla holds a live demonstration (in person, officially livestreamed, or both) where a Tesla Roadster (any variant, including a remotely operated or non street legal thruster version) lifts completely off the ground.