Will a privately-held company ever become the most valuable in the world?
ExchangeOne-OffBusiness & CorporateEquitiesCorporate ActionsSpaceTechAI2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 26, 5:53 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will a company that is privately held (never held an IPO, or a public company that has been taken private) ever be valued more than the most valuable public company? By market close.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at any point a privately-held company achieves an implied or transaction-based equity valuation greater than the market capitalization of the world's most valuable publicly listed company at that same time.
- For the purposes of this market:
- A privately-held company is defined as an operating commercial enterprise whose equity shares are not publicly traded on a recognized stock exchange (including companies that have never executed an IPO, as well as previously public companies that have been taken private).
- State-owned sovereign enterprises or government ministries whose shares do not have private equity ownership stakes or primary third-party private equity financing rounds are excluded.
