Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards?
EntertainmentOne-Off6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 26, 7:46 AM UTCMar 14, 27, 2:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market asks whether a film containing AI-generated video will win at least one Academy Award at the 2027 Oscars. “AI-generated video” means footage or visual sequences substantially created or altered using generative AI video models, rather than ordinary CGI, visual effects, upscaling, or conventional digital editing.
- The market resolves YES if a qualifying film wins at least one Oscar at the 99th Academy Awards on March 14, 2027.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- The determination will be based on publicly available information about the winning film and whether generative AI was used to create or substantially alter video footage.
- The 2027 Oscars are scheduled for March 14, 2027, at 7 p.m. ET.
- For reference, see the official Oscars website.
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards? resolve?
- Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards? is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2027.
- How is Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market asks whether a film containing AI-generated video will win at least one Academy Award at the 2027 Oscars. “AI-generated video” means footage or visual sequences substantially created or altered using generative AI video models, rather than ordinary CGI, visual effects, upscaling, or conventional digital editing.