Current community forecast
SpaceX 56.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
SpaceX 56.4%Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+23.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 26, 8:45 AM UTCJan 7, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to the launch provider responsible for the first orbital launch attempt worldwide with a liftoff time in calendar year 2027 (UTC).
- Orbital launch attempt: any launch intended to reach Earth orbit or beyond, including failures.
- Suborbital flights and tests not intended to reach orbit are excluded.
- Launch provider: the company or agency operating the launch vehicle, classified by the country where it is headquartered.
- Launch site, customer and payload don’t matter.
- For example, a Rocket Lab Electron launch from New Zealand counts as “Other American provider”.
