Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 75.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
103
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 23, 1:15 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Wikipedia article "X (social media platform)" no longer redirect to "Twitter" on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the official Farcaster client (formerly Warpcast) permanently cease as a social media platform by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiWill the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
FutuurRules
Popularity determined by some form of "active users". e.g. users who have made at least 1 post in the past year.
- The exact metric will be determined by what sites choose to report and what can reasonably be estimated.
- If a site is renamed, this resolves to the old name.
- If two sites merge, this resolves to the name of the new one if it kept an old name, or to the one that was bigger prior to the merge if not.
- If you'd like a new site added, ask me and I'll add it.
- (You'll need to managram me M$25.)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Popularity determined by some form of "active users". e.g. users who have made at least 1 post in the past year.