Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?
One-OffTechBusiness & Corporate3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 11, 24, 1:57 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Measured by monthly active users https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026? resolve?
- Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Measured by monthly active users https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_platforms_with_at_least_100_million_active_users