Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLeonardo DiCaprio 81.8%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 9:46 PM UTCMar 15, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of these people will attend the 2026 Emmys ceremony?
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KalshiHow many people will attend our 20th monthly NYC dinner?
Manifold MarketsBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketNcaafheisman 26
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
You may suggest new options, which I may add.
- Please no obvious suggestions like crew and actors from nominated movies.
- Resolution criteria
- Each option corresponding to an individual will resolve to YES if they attend the 99th Academy Awards (the 2027 Oscars) ceremony, currently scheduled to take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
- "Attending" is defined as being present inside the venue during the main ceremony or appearing on the official red carpet event preceding the ceremony.
- Presence will be verified using official broadcast footage, photographic evidence from reputable agencies (such as Getty Images or Associated Press), or reports from major trade publications (such as Variety or The Hollywood Reporter).
Open markets
AwardsPOLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.6pt62.4%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.9%
- Kylian Mbappé+3.5pt10.9%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $371.5K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+1.0pt15%
- AMAN+1.0pt11%
- CCAR-2.0pt10%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI-1.0pt63.1%
- Resident Evil Requiem+1.0pt11.7%
- Control Resonant7.2%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane-0.3pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.0pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-9.0pt59%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- BTS+2.0pt75%
- LISA+7.0pt11.7%
- BLACKPINK5.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $43.4K
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt61%
- twenty one pilots+7.0pt16.1%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $32.8K
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best R&B
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Art Direction
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of these people will attend the 2027 Oscars ceremony??
- Manifold Markets prices Leonardo DiCaprio at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of these people will attend the 2027 Oscars ceremony? resolve?
- Which of these people will attend the 2027 Oscars ceremony? is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2027.
- How is Which of these people will attend the 2027 Oscars ceremony? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: You may suggest new options, which I may add.