Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Red Dead Redemption 3 85.2%Leader of 35 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 24, 4:07 PM UTCMar 4, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (21 DONE)
Manifold MarketsWhich of these video game franchises will get a new game announced before 2027
Manifold MarketsCanadian entry for Eurovision 2027 qualify for the final round?
Manifold MarketsVideo games released this year
Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRules
If the game series has only two entries, any new mainline game release will resolve it YES regardless of the name.
- If the game series has multiple games already, it does not necessarily need to be the third game overall, just the one that is titled as the 'Third' one
- Might be a judgement call based on community sentiment.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of these video games will get their "third" entry by 3/3/2033??
- Manifold Markets prices Red Dead Redemption 3 at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of these video games will get their "third" entry by 3/3/2033? resolve?
- Which of these video games will get their "third" entry by 3/3/2033? is scheduled to resolve on March 4, 2033.
- How is Which of these video games will get their "third" entry by 3/3/2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the game series has only two entries, any new mainline game release will resolve it YES regardless of the name.