Current community forecast
Before Jan 1, 2027 11%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-39.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 26, 11:39 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
To satisfy the Payout Criterion, Anthropic must release to the public a model named "Mythos." Both conditions must be met by the same model:
- The model must be named "Mythos" (e.g., "Claude Mythos 5").
- A model that Anthropic describes as "Mythos-class" or as belonging to the Mythos tier, but that carries a different name (e.g., "Claude Fable 5"), does not satisfy the Payout Criterion, even if Anthropic states it is the same underlying model with modified safety features.
- Public release.
- A release restricted to a closed beta or to a limited set of approved or trusted organizations does not constitute a release to the public.
- A release available to the general public, including a release limited to a paid subscription tier, does constitute a release to the public.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Before Dec 1, 2026 19%