Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2028 41%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 24, 1:52 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be cast in the live-action Legend of Zelda movie, as what role?
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PolymarketRules
By "major Legend of Zelda game" I mean a AAA game like Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, The Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Skyward Sword, Breath of the Wild, and Tears of the Kingdom.
- I don't know the exact term to describe this group of games.
- The game must be new, official, and legitimately released.
- Remasters, remakes, expansions, DLC, fan projects, and leaked games do not count.
- I'll probably add more options if the probability of "Other" seems too high.
- FYI, my 8-year-old asked me to post this question.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 41% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released? resolve?
- What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By "major Legend of Zelda game" I mean a AAA game like Ocarina of Time, Majora's Mask, The Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Skyward Sword, Breath of the Wild, and Tears of the Kingdom.