What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
Corporate ActionsOne-OffAIUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 9, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastGive substantial equity to the US government 28.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 days ago
StaleJun 8, 26, 9:50 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Give substantial equity to the US government28%
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Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.
- Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
- Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
- OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
- I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
- I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")