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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
Manifold Markets

What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]

Corporate ActionsOne-OffAIUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Give substantial equity to the US government 28.1%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Jun 8, 26, 9:50 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Give substantial equity to the US government28%

Rules

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")

Related Markets

OpenAI IPO by...?

OpenAI IPO by...?

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OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

$32.1K
No IPO by December 31, 2026: 55%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?

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Manifold Markets

What Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?

$2.9K
June 2026: 0.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?

$1.9K
June 2026: 1.7%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

$1.6K
Yes: 45.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Rules

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")