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What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2) 0.5%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

30

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale

Mar 22, 26, 8:17 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

0.5%

$200M – $249.9M (Moderate legs, ~3x multiplier)

0.3%

$250M – $299.9M (Strong performance, ~3.4x multiplier)

0.5%

Selected outcome

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)79%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market tracks the final Domestic (North American) Cumulative Gross

After a massive $80.6 million opening weekend—the biggest non-franchise opening since Oppenheimer—the film is poised for a significant run.
Traders should consider the film's "legs" (longevity), its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, and upcoming competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1.
Resolution Criteria
Primary Source: This market will resolve based on the "Domestic Total" figure reported by https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/?ref_=bo_di_table_1
Resolution Date: The market will resolve once Box Office Mojo lists the film as "Closed" or after 20 weeks of release (August 7, 2026), whichever comes first.

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Rules

This market tracks the final Domestic (North American) Cumulative Gross

After a massive $80.6 million opening weekend—the biggest non-franchise opening since Oppenheimer—the film is poised for a significant run.
Traders should consider the film's "legs" (longevity), its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, and upcoming competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1.
Resolution Criteria
Primary Source: This market will resolve based on the "Domestic Total" figure reported by https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/?ref_=bo_di_table_1
Resolution Date: The market will resolve once Box Office Mojo lists the film as "Closed" or after 20 weeks of release (August 7, 2026), whichever comes first.