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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

AI6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
<30% 0.9%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters

38

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jan 16, 26, 8:49 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

<30%1%

Rules

This market matches Mathematics: FrontierMath Tier 4 from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

Manifold Markets
  • See other manifold questions here
  • [image]Resolution criteria
  • Resolves to the highest reported accuracy on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31, 2026.
  • If Epoch AI releases an updated version of FrontierMath T4 with comparable difficulty, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
  • Which AI systems count?

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,758.66+0.09%EthereumETH$1,669.74-0.86%SolanaSOL$67.29+0.44%DogecoinDOGE$0.088+1.37%BNBBNB$605.93+0.16%XRPXRP$1.14-0.95%

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Rules

This market matches Mathematics: FrontierMath Tier 4 from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

Manifold Markets
  • See other manifold questions here
  • [image]Resolution criteria
  • Resolves to the highest reported accuracy on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31, 2026.
  • If Epoch AI releases an updated version of FrontierMath T4 with comparable difficulty, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
  • Which AI systems count?